by Jeff Swanson
According to CNN’s John King, “To win in November, Mitt Romney must emerge from his first debate with President Barack Obama as the leader on this campaign’s defining question: Which candidate do voters trust more to handle the economy?”
No one but Nancy Pelosi thinks that President Barack Obama has done a good job. With the economy, the idea that voters need to know who they can trust more is either the funniest thing I’ve recently heard or a grand maul, cry inducing statement on how little people understand about last four years.
No matter. You can slice it any way you choose. It’s not a matter of whether or not you trust Obama, few with an understanding of reality say that Obama has done a stellar job. The real question is whether or not Romney can do better?
I mean, it would seem obvious to state that I think Romney can do better. I’m a conservative Republican, what else would I say?
What’s interesting is that pundits think that Romney has to actually overcome much of anything economic. He does not. Pure and simple. If the argument were solely economics and economic fact, Romney would win.
Mr. King did mention something about trust. And that, well, he is right on that point. Just not economic trust. If you’re a Republican, that could be a bright spot.
According to that purveyor of slop, Scott Rasmussen. “A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters trust Romney more when it comes to handling the economy. Forty-four percent (44%) trust the president more.”
Sure, the survey is about trust with regard to the economy but it isn’t explicitly about the economy. Trust for the candidate in total extends to the economy and all other matters Presidential.
In a way, Mitt could say ‘TikkiTikkiTembo‘ and it wouldn’t matter, so long as he does it with conviction and in a manner that communicates that what he says is true.
I’ve often asserted to anyone listening; statistics matter little but the conviction with which you deliver them does. Lever pulling on election day is a gut check and not a fact check.
If the electorate smells your candidate’s blood in the water, Pinocchio be damned, your candidate’s going down.
No voter in their right mind grabs a ballot and says to themselves, ‘That Mitt feller sure seemed to know his statistics, I’ll vote for him.’ It doesn’t work that way. This is why it is not trust on the economy. It is simply trust.
As Mr, King stated, “Our new CNN/ORC International poll asked likely voters which candidate would better handle the economy. Obama was the choice of 49%, Romney of 48%.”
A statistical tie.
If you ask a specific question, you will get a nuanced answer. Again, voting is not a statistical question. However, it is illustrative of how little Obama has to grasp for against a challenging Romney. The needle needn’t move that far.
With all the conjecture about this election, all Romney really needs to do is engender trust. If he does nothing else, this would be a gain over Obama and likely the puzzle piece that pushed Mitt over the top.